TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/caps/82/82kohl

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                                                                                October 11, 1982 

Helmut Kohl

Changing of the Guard

Schmidt is out, Kohl is in, and an ambiguous new era beckons


Finally, the weeks of confusion and political conniving had come
to an end. Bored though they were by a debate that had droned
on for more than five hours, members of West Germany's
parliament watched closely as Bundestag President Richard
Stucklen rose to make a curt announcement:  the opposition
motion of no confidence in the minority government of Chancellor
Helmut Schmidt had carried by a vote of 256 to 235, with four
abstentions. While colleagues began congratulating Opposition
Leader Helmut Kohl, the Christian Democratic Party chairman
grinned broadly as he acknowledged the results of the ballot.
Said Kohl:  "Mr. President, I accept the vote."

Through a seldom used constitutional provision called a
"constructive" vote of no confidence, Kohl, 52, had become West
Germany's sixth and youngest postwar Chancellor, ending 13 years
of continuous rule by Social Democratic governments. Hours after
the decision, an ebullient Kohl, garbed in cutaway coat, striped
trousers and top hat, accepted the formal document of his
appointment from Karl Carstens, President of the Federal
Republic. Kohl declared his unprecedented parliamentary victory
"a great day for democracy" and proclaimed the task ahead to be
"a spiritual and oral challenge."

Last week's momentous Bundestag vote grew out of weeks of
virtual paralysis and political infighting between the country's
major parties following the Sept. 17 breakup of Helmut Schmidt's
ruling center-left coalition. It marked the first time in West
Germany's postwar history that a change in leadership was
brought about by the use of the "constructive" procedure.*  The
unorthodox method of the changing of the guard in Bonn gave an
element of instability and uncertainty to the fledgling Kohl
government, which has tentatively promised national elections
for next March 6. Kohl's new coalition is untested, and his
Christian Democratic Union has not been overwhelmingly
successful in recent state elections. Kohl's new junior
partners, the Free Democrats, led by Schmidt's former Foreign
Minister, Hans-Dietrich Genscher, carry the stigma of having
bolted from their longtime coalition with the Social Democrats.
Since then they have suffered severe setbacks at the state
level.

Beyond that, the new Chancellor will face vigorous opposition
from the Social Democrats and from West Germany's rising third
force of environmentalists and antinuclear activist known as the
Greens. Kohl seemed to grasp the political difficulties
confronting him as he faced television cameras after the
Bundestag vote. Said he:  "Now I am the Chancellor. I have been
in politics too long, know too much about the daily routine of
politics, not to know what difficulties lie ahead."

Schmidt, 63, looked ashen as he shook hands with Kohl following
the Bundestag debate that preceded the balloting. After eight
highly visible years as Chancellor, Schmidt precipitated the
no-confidence vote when he abruptly broke up the S.P.D.'s
alliance with the Free Democrats and called unsuccessfully for
new elections after it had become obvious last month that the
Free Democratic Party (F.D.P.) was about to switch its
allegiance to Kohl. Schmidt's departure form the glass-and-steel
Chancellery in Bonn marks the end of an era. The
economist-politician from Hamburg, a man of formidable intellect
and political skill, established himself as a world statesman,
the first West German leader since World War II to pursue an
assertive foreign policy unclouded by guilt about the past. One
longtime acquaintance who was shocked by Schmidt's defeat,
former U.S. Secretary of State Cyrus Vance, praised the ousted
Chancellor for "his great intelligence and a great deal of
wisdom--he has a rare combination of both."

Schmidt spent his last evening as Chancellor working in his
office until about 8 p.m., then took a car to S.P.D.
headquarters on Bonn's Ollenhauerstrasse to address a
rain-drenched rally of some 1,500 party faithful. Wearing his
trademark blue wool sailor's cap, Schmidt drew thunderous cheers
as he declared:  "The S.P.D. is the only party committed to
peacemaking."

The Bundestag convened promptly at 9 the next morning. Speaker
after speaker from each side droned on, charging the opposing
forces with treachery and duplicity. Schmidt, dressed in a
dark-blue suit, sat in the first seat of the government bench,
characteristically studying documents, making small marginal
notes, seemingly paying no attention to the debate. Kohl
occupied seat No. 13 of the opposition benches; behind and above
him, in the chamber's diplomatic gallery, were Kohl's wife
Hannelore and their two sons, Walter 20, and Peter, 18.

Schmidt began his 58-min. valedictory speech with a litany of
S.P.D. accomplishments over the past 13 years. Then he lashed
out at the newly formed center-right coalition that was about
to bring down his government. "Your way of behaving is legal,
but it has no inner, no moral justification," shouted Schmidt.
"The voters will not forget this behavior for many years."  He
admonished Kohl to "tell the whole people today, without ifs or
buts, that we will elect a new parliament on March 6."  Because
of all the speeches, the secret balloting on Kohl's
no-confidence motion began two hours later than scheduled.
Though the votes were tallied behind closed doors, expectant
Christian Democratic deputies got advance word that Kohl had
won, and began slapping each other on the back and shaking
hands. Exulted one:  "We're back where we belong at last!"

Five days before the Bundestag ballot, West German voters seemed
to display their unease about the impending new coalition in
elections for the local parliament of the central industrial
state of Hesse. Widely expected to win a clear majority in that
election, the Christian Democrats polled 45.6% of the vote. The
Free Democrats were wiped out of the assembly, gaining only 3.1%
of the vote, far less than the 5% necessary to retain
representation. Campaigning vigorously under the slogan
"Betrayal in Bonn," Schmidt's Social Democrats gained 42.8%, an
increase of more than 10 percentage points over their predicted
total. Said S.D.P. Chairman Willy Brandt after the election:
"The electorate has spoken. The Hesse election shave strong
national implications."

Brandt hoped that the Hesse results would deter the Free
Democrats from joining forces with Kohl. Two days after the
election, however, the 54 Free Democrat members of the Bundestag
decided by a vote of 34 to 18 to go ahead with the no-confidence
maneuver.

A low-key politician from Rhineland-Palatinate who has spent
three decades in Christian Democratic national politics, Kohl
is a striking contrast to the hard-driving and brilliant but
sometimes arrogant Schmidt. Known in West Germany as the Black
Giant, the dark- complexioned 6-ft. 4-in. jowly Kohl is folksy,
gregarious and a devout Roman Catholic. In the Bundestag,
Schmidt is always poised and formal. Kohl, on the other hand,
has frequently been seen sitting on the opposition benches
roaring with laughter, as if parliamentary business were some
huge joke. Kohl is fond of saying that "my strength is that
people are ready to buy a used car from me without testing it."

The personal differences between Kohl and Schmidt will
undoubtedly stand out most sharply at international conference
tables. With his economist's training and his experience as West
German Defense Minister under Brandt, Schmidt brought vast
expertise to international economic issues and nuclear defense
questions within NATO, a gap that Kohl cannot hope to fill.
Balanced against that, however, was Schmidt's notorious
impatience, which drew sparks from other strong-willed
statesmen, and his increasingly frequent bouts of personal
depression.

Despite his inexperience, the jovial Kohl may get along better
than Schmidt did with Ronald Reagan and Britain's Margaret
Thatcher. The fact that the three share a conservative political
philosophy may be more important than one impediment to mutual
understanding:  Kohl speaks little English. In Washington, White
House officials note with pleasure such Kohl statements as:
"People have come to think of the Soviet Union only as a detente
and trade partner. We have to remind them of the true nature of
Soviet expansionism."

On major foreign policy issues, however, the difference between
Kohl and Schmidt, at lest in the short term, is more likely to
be one of tone rather than substance--what a Kohl aids has
called "continuity with new accents."  The new Chancellor will
echo schmidt's firm stand in support of the 1983 installation
of intermediate-range cruise and Pershing II missiles in Western
Europe, although he may face more vociferous opposition than his
predecessor did from West Germany's burgeoning anti-nuclear
movement. Also, Kohl is unlikely to change West Germany's
position on the building of the Soviet gas pipeline, since the
project will have direct effect on his country's business
interests.

Kohl will have to tread cautiously at home. Even before his
Bundestag victory last week, West Germany's powerful trade
unions had begun girding for conflict with the new Chancellor,
who must quickly come to grips with problems of the country's
sagging economy. The most sensitive issue is social-welfare
spending:  at a time when 1.8 million West Germans are
unemployed, businessmen are complaining loudly that 70% of their
labor costs are for social benefits, the steepest percentage in
Western Europe. Says Liane Launhardt, an economist for the
Frankfurt-based Commerzbank:  "There is no doubt that what we
have done over the years is escalate the social safety net."
Agrees Economist Wolfgang Baumann of the Cologne-based
Federation of Industry:  "What we need is a shift to
supply-side economics, German-style."

Any such move is liable to trigger harsh union reaction. In
response to a relatively mild Kohl proposal for limiting
public-sector wage increases, Monika Wulf-Mathies, leader of the
country's 1.2 million- member civil servants union, called the
plan a "declaration of war," and threatened strike action if the
proposal is carried out. Having long and patiently planned his
parliamentary assault on the Chancellor's office. Kohl must now
prepare for all the battles that his new job will entail.


*Under Article 67 of West Germany's constitutional Basic Law,
a simple majority of deputies in the 497-seat Bundestag can
remove the Chancellor provided that they "constructively"
designate a successor. As Christian Democratic leader in 1972,
Rainer Barzel tried and failed to use the provision to topple
Social Democratic Chancellor Willy Brandt.

--By George Russell. Reported by Roland Flamini and John
Moody/Bonn